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Media Day Dividends

Updated: Aug 27

Confused about the media points allocation on Football Index? Unsure which articles and outlets are included and why? Looking to build a portfolio of media stars? Read on to find out more about the Media Day Dividends scoring and dividends on Football Index.


Since it's inception, Media Day Dividends (previously Media Buzz) has been at the core of Football Index. Even before the performance matrix was introduced to reward player performances, daily payouts were made based on a players' coverage in the media.


As Football Index has grown to include performance dividends (Match Day Dividends) and IPDs (In-Play Dividends), Media Day Dividends are still crucial for Football Index on days where there are no matches in the eligible leagues. Whilst there is a degree of discontent in the trader community about consistency and qualifying articles, below I will look at the core of the Media Day Dividends system. How it currently stands, and which areas could be, and are likely to be, improved in the future.


How does it work


In short, players score points for appearing in articles in qualifying news outlets throughout the day, and the highest scoring player(s) will win dividends at the end of the day.


The greater the media coverage on an individual player, the more points he will accrue and be in with a chance of winning dividends on a given day. In addition to Media days where there are no eligible matches being played, there is also a single payout for Media dividends on each match day.


As discussed in the post on Identifying players to buy on Football Index (link), Media players are those that regularly score highly on the Media chart. In the past, this has been reflected in the players' prices being substantially higher, with Mo Salah, Paul Pogba and Jadon Sancho a few examples of players who regularly returning media dividends.









List of qualifying news outlets:


Talksport, UEFA, The FA, ESPN, FIFA, Football League, Daily Mail, Daily Star, The Times, Telegraph, Independent, Express, Guardian, Metro, Daily Mirror, BBC, Football365, Goal.com, Huffington Post and Sky Sports.


In July 2020, it was announced that The Athletic will be added to the media outlets and an increased presence of articles from Sky Sports & The Times.


Keywords


For a full breakdown of key words and points scoring, click here (external site). The theory here is that the more positive articles, should be rewarded more highly with negative words meaning points are deducted.


The Dividends


At the time of writing, the dividend table below is in place. However, note that this is regularly reviewed by Football Index and updated accordingly. Whilst there is no formal confirmation, this is likely to be at the start of each season.


Media Days


Despite the excitement and passion of match days on Football Index, there will always be days in the calendar when there are no eligible matches being played and Media Day Dividends do a fantastic job in filling the void. During the summer break, and the Coronavirus lockdown, Media days were the lifeblood of the platform and an opportunity to receive dividends when most betting companies are struggling to attract customers.


Especially exciting for Media Day Dividends are transfer rumours and speculation. These have in the past caused players to top the media chart for weeks and months, consistently returning dividends. Whilst it is not always easy to predict transfers, or decipher rumours from facts, it is clear which players are likely to feature in speculation as the end of season and transfer window nears. This will be evident by prices gradually increasing and talk in the trader community as well as the media. Getting in early on these can prove very beneficial, whether you hold over the longer term for the dividends, or buy low and sell at a peak.


Typical Players


If you are looking to buy players who can win media dividends, then below are a few tips on some of the types of players and attributes to look for, each with their pros and cons.


The King(s)


Identifying players: Easy. Players at the top of the index and regularly discussed within the trader and wider football community.


Pros

  • Expensive for a reason. Proven media dividend winner and very high chance of further dividends in the future

  • Performs at a consistently high level on the pitch which also generates media attention

  • Popular in the trader community. Widely discussed and overall positive sentiment

Cons

  • Possibility that there may be a price dip in the near future

  • Circumstances can change and work against them making it difficult to sell quickly

  • Likely to be a young player which carries it's own risk. See post Are young players more risky? (link)


Likely/ Confirmed Transfer Holds


Identifying players: Those consistently linked to favourable transfers in reliable news outlets. Transfer possibly confirmed for a later date in some cases. Prices haven't risen yet due to money being elsewhere (performance players during match days/ other transfers)


Pros

  • Relatively safe if a transfer seems likely and is widely reported. Whilst getting in early is always the best option (see below - Possible Transfer Holds), this can carry less risk and volatility in prices

  • Very high chance of peaks and dips whilst the transfer is speculated, confirmed and post transfer presenting opportunities for trading

  • Big transfers generate excitement as the new season approaches causing prices to rise in anticipation

Cons

  • If transfer rumours are reported in the more reliable outlets, there is a high chance that you have missed the initial spike in price. Whilst this isn't a concern as there will likely to be more growth in the near future, it's very much a risk vs reward decision. Sacrificing some reward for less risk

  • Transfer may still not happen, or a different transfer may be confirmed in which case drops can be large

  • Uncertainty over how the player will settle at the new club/ country/ culture


Possible Transfer Holds


Identifying players: Those consistently performing well statistically, ideally at various levels (domestic, European and international), but where a transfer would be beneficial. For example, a player who is second choice in a position and covering an injury, or one who has a need for first team football to retain their position in the international setup.


Pros

  • Some increased risk over likely transfer holds but also increased potential for profit

  • Opportunity to get in before the crowd

  • Detailed research and time spent early on can be rewarded later if the transfer happens

Cons

  • Sources are often unreliable and there is an increased chance the transfer may not happen

  • Transfer may be on and off at various times and difficult to follow

  • Circumstances can change at the club and this could work in their favour


Outside Chance Transfer Holds


Identifying players: Those who have performed well but have gone under the radar and there are no links at present. Seemingly happy in their position but where a transfer would be beneficial for financial/ development reasons. For example, a young player who scores a hat trick in a non-eligible league and shows great potential.


Pros

  • More risky than likely or possible transfer holds but huge potential for maximum profit

  • Opportunity to spot talent whilst heads are turned towards other areas of the market

  • As with Possible Transfer Holds, detailed research and time spent early on can be rewarded later if the transfer happens

Cons

  • Transfer is unlikely to happen soon and this may need to be a long term strategy

  • High chance the transfer may never happen and exiting the player will not be as easy as others

  • Uncertainty over how the player will settle at the new club/ country/ culture


Young Players


Identifying players: Those who are young and regularly involved in first team matches (domestic, European and international) and off the field promotional work/ campaigns. Breakthrough stars in the making featuring heavily in the media.


Pros

  • Many opportunities for media exposure - first goal, international debut, transfer speculation

  • Career dividends - 10/ 15 year career of dividends ahead?

  • Media obsession with young players, especially home grown talent

Cons

  • Young players can be inconsistent on the pitch and this can impact their selection

  • Risk with young players - Off the pitch involvements can easily disrupt development and affect their career

  • Each new season brings a new generation of players challenging for media attention


Controversial Characters


Identifying players: Those who feature regularly in the media due to controversies, either on or off the pitch. Fallouts with managers, personal lives or speculation over the players performances or activities


Pros

  • Consistent media exposure and likely to feature somewhere in the rankings on a regular basis. Can be a good hold for second or third placed dividends

  • Price volatility in regard to recent activity

  • Spikes generally iron out over time for a gradual rise

Cons

  • Unpredictable nature of this hold means a fallout is just around the corner

  • Turbulent relationships with managers can lead to problems with performance

  • Media can tire of reporting on the same player(s)


Criticisms of the Media Day Dividends Day system


UK bias


One of the regular criticisms of Football Index and the Media Day dividends system is the UK bias which subsequently means the majority of players winning Media Day Dividends are those playing in the English Premier League, or English players.


Whilst Football Index have included a range of global news outlets, it's worth highlighting the tabloids which are included often make up a large percentage of the points awarded. Needless to say, the focus in these articles is nearly always towards English or Premier League based players, and can often steer away from performance related articles.


A potential solution here is to include only Quality Press, defined on Wikipedia as broadsheet newspapers, removing the tabloid press and replacing them with foreign outlets. Whilst this is a hotly debated topic in the Football Index community, it would provide a more balanced market for players challenging for Media dividends. Having said that, a balance also needs to be achieved for those currently holding the media 'stars' who have bought the player under the current system.


Regarding foreign outlets, there are essentially two options for translating.

  • Translations are done in-house by Football Index

  • Only foreign media written in English will be used

The pros and cons of these two options are already clear, but the concern with the first would be the amount of time it would take, the accuracy and any subjectivity surrounding the translations. The second option, preferred to me would allow the Media market to be opened up, but at the same time, minimise any issues with translations. There are already a significant amount of foreign news outlets which could qualify for this system and no doubt further research and agreements could be made between Football Index and the relevant outlets.


An example of this would be to split the sky sports outlet into the five qualifying leagues, where points would be allocated for each. Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Ligue 1 and Serie A. If this was then complimented by similar structures for other outlets, we would see a much more balanced scoring system.


In addition to European media being included, it's worth mentioning also the possibility of the wider global media being included. This would likely give a broader overview of European football with reduced Premier League basis. For example, the New York Times


Controversial Articles


Much is made of controversial articles appearing in the Media scoring within the trader community and this area is a difficult one to call. Not least, judgements on some matters are not easy. For example, articles on racism and crime have been removed, and there is a general consensus in the trader community that articles focusing on performances on the pitch are preferable. However, the issue here is that it may mean some positive off the field action is ignored, such as recently when Marcus Rashford's campaign which was widely praised in the media, was overtaken by a very poor performance on the pitch by David Luiz.


The easiest solution I can foresee here, would be to remove the tabloid news and add/ keep the above mentioned outlets. Whilst this could be detrimental in some situations, the good would likely outweigh the bad, and at least it would provide a consistent basis for qualifying articles and outlets.


United bias


Another recurring criticism of the points allocation system is the positive points award for the word 'Untied'. Whilst this was clearly setup to reward positive articles, if has of course, meant that any article mentioning Manchester United received a favourable score. Combine that with the amount of articles written by journalists on possible transfers associated with Manchester United and you have a system weighted heavily towards one club.


Again, the argument would be that to change this, is effectively changing the system under which players were bought. However, it should also be appreciated that the current media system is long overdue a review having been in place since the beginning when Football Index was a small startup company.


Thank you for reading and I hope this article has given you a broad overview of the Media Day Dividends system and a few ideas for players to research when building your portfolio.


Screenshots taken from the Football Index app and website.


Comments, thoughts and suggestions below please.

© 2020 by INDEXnotes
 

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